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Case study · Plant genetics · GWAS

Rice Flowering-Time GWAS: From Field Trials to a Chromosome 3 Locus

Eight wet- and dry-season field trials were modeled into one adjusted flowering-time estimate per rice line. A kinship- and structure-aware GWAS identified 119 significant markers in a broad chromosome 3 region; local LD and exact MSU v6.0 annotation define what the association can—and cannot—resolve.

Oryza sativa349 breeding lines69,833 markers8 trialsTASSEL MLM

Original 30-page session report · PDF · 2.8 MB

At a glance

A strong association with a broad mapping interval

The report follows the full path from repeated plot observations and imputed HapMap genotypes to mixed-model association, local LD, and positional candidate genes. Its central result is a chromosome 3 association in this breeding panel, with independent validation and finer mapping still needed.

Breeding lines349
Markers tested69,833
Significant markers119
Associated interval1.70 Mb
01 / Scientific context

Which genomic regions are associated with flowering time across field trials?

Can flowering-time associations be detected after accounting for trial conditions, genotype × environment variation, relatedness, and population structure in an inbred rice breeding panel?

The phenotype was FL, days to 50% heading. Wet- and dry-season observations from 2009–2012 were combined through a trial-aware mixed model so that repeated plots informed a line estimate rather than being treated as independent genotypes in GWAS.

SourceUser-supplied archives whose exact filenames are listed in Dryad dataset 10.5061/dryad.7369p, associated with Spindel et al. (2015) and the IRRI irrigated rice breeding population.
GenotypesMET_crfilt_.75_allchrom.hmp.txt.zip — imputed HapMap SNP calls
PhenotypesRYT_plotdata_by_GHID_corrected_PUBLIC_ACCESS.zip — plot records from eight year-season trials
ReferenceNipponbare MSU v6.0 throughout; matching GFF3 and TU brief annotations
Analysis unit349 breeding lines after matching and sample QC

The source publication by Spindel et al. (2015) studied genomic selection and association mapping in elite tropical rice breeding lines. Dryad documents these phenotype files as wet- and dry-season measurements from 2009–2012. The publication's 363-line, 73,147-marker analysis and this session's 349-line, 69,833-marker GWAS use different analysis sets; the present case study does not claim to reproduce the published model or results exactly.

02 / Analysis workflow

From plot-level records to a kinship-aware association scan

Reconcile samples and genotype callsRemove two non-sample columns from the raw HapMap, match 358 of 368 true genotype samples to phenotype records, and retain 349 after sample call-rate QC. Normalize unsupported calls and remove malformed markers with an exclusion ledger.
Filter markers for an inbred panelRetain 69,833 of 108,024 raw markers after preprocessing, call-rate, monomorphic-site, and minor-allele-frequency filters. Thresholds were 80% sample call rate, 75% locus call rate, and 5% MAF. HWE was not used as a routine exclusion criterion; relatedness was modeled.
Adjust flowering time across trialsFit FL ~ trial + (1|GHID) + (1|GHID:trial) + (1|trial:REP) in lme4 with REML. Trial absorbs year-season effects; line, line-by-trial, and replicate terms account for repeated observations and trial structure. Export one adjusted BLUP per retained line.
Run mixed-model GWASUse TASSEL 5 MLM with P3D, centered IBS kinship, and five genotype PCs. Apply Bonferroni p < 0.05 / 69,833 = 7.16 × 10⁻⁷; report BH FDR and QQ diagnostics as additional summaries.
Resolve the region and annotateEvaluate local pairwise LD in a 717-marker chromosome 3 window. Intersect significant positions with the exact MSU v6.0 gene models, preserving reference identity and strand information.
Execution evidenceThe completed report describes PCs from the filtered HapMap. Its plan proposed LD-pruned PCA, but the export does not establish that pruning was performed. The website summarizes the reported execution without asserting that planned step was completed.
03 / Results

119 significant markers point to one broad chromosome 3 region

A concentrated association signal

All 119 Bonferroni-significant markers and all 157 markers at BH FDR < 0.05 lie on chromosome 3. Lead SNP S3_1269941 has reported p = 1.41 × 10⁻¹⁷.

High LD limits resolution

The significant interval spans Chr3:234,156–1,935,861 bp. Mean pairwise r² among significant markers is 0.740, supporting one major correlated association region; this does not prove a single causal variant.

Structure and model calibration matter

PC1 and PC2 explain 14.6% and 4.1% of genotypic variance in the report. GWAS λGC = 0.892 is below one, consistent with conservative calibration and possible loss of power; it does not establish that confounding is absent.

Environment contributes to the phenotype

The fitted variance table assigns 60.7% to genotype and 26.4% to genotype × environment. Only 111 of the 349 lines were observed in all eight trials, making adjustment and uncertainty relevant to interpretation.

Manhattan plot across 12 rice chromosomes with significant associations concentrated on chromosome 3
Genome-wide association. Report Figure 7 (PDF p. 22): 349 lines, 69,833 tested markers, and 119 markers beyond the Bonferroni threshold. The peak establishes an association within this panel, not a validated causal gene.
QQ plot comparing observed and expected GWAS p-values with genomic inflation factor 0.892
GWAS calibration. Report Figure 8 (PDF p. 23) shows a strong upper-tail deviation alongside λGC = 0.892. A below-one value warrants attention to conservative model behavior.
Genotype PCA of 349 rice lines colored by adjusted flowering time
Population structure. Report Figure 9 (PDF p. 24) colors the PCA by adjusted flowering time. The displayed visualization is separate from the TASSEL PCs used as association covariates.
Pairwise LD heatmap for 119 significant chromosome 3 markers
Correlated markers. Report Figure 11 (PDF p. 26): mean pairwise r² = 0.740 among the significant markers. High LD means that 119 significant markers should not be presented as 119 independent discoveries.
04 / Candidate interpretation

The lead marker overlaps LOC_Os03g03070, linked to OsMADS50

In the report's MSU v6.0 coordinates, S3_1269941 at Chr3:1,269,941 lies within LOC_Os03g03070 (1,268,854–1,270,781, minus strand). The downloaded annotation describes a putative expressed transcription factor. The interval contains 275 annotated genes; 53 genes directly overlap significant markers.

The session's final discussion identifies the OsMADS50 connection. The FunRiceGenes record lists LOC_Os03g03070 under OsMADS50 / OsSOC1 / DTH3, alongside LOC_Os03g03100 and published flowering-time studies. This is additional gene-identity context, not a replacement for the MSU v6.0 coordinates used in the analysis.

Chromosome 3 regional association colored by LD with the lead SNP, above MSU v6.0 gene models on both strands
Regional association and gene models. Report Figure 13 (PDF p. 27) locates the lead SNP relative to MSU v6.0 annotations. This is the figure embedded in the supplied report; the later request for a newly gene-labeled Manhattan plot has no completed response in the export.
Evidence boundary

Known gene identity makes this a biologically relevant candidate region. The present GWAS does not establish that variation in OsMADS50 causes the flowering-time differences in this panel, identify a causal allele, or supply an independently validated selection marker.

05 / Limitations

Imputation, trial imbalance, and reporting gaps remain visible

  • Imputation accuracy was not independently assessed; filtering at MAF 5% also limits rare-variant discovery.
  • The trial design is unbalanced, and genotype × environment variation remains important. Environment-subset association sensitivity is a proposed follow-up, not an established result.
  • The 1.70 Mb interval and strong LD cannot distinguish one causal variant from several linked effects. Independent-panel replication is absent.
  • Allele-effect direction and magnitude are not provided in the canonical association output described by the report.
  • The PDF methods report 5,799 analyzed plot records, while the output inventory describes 5,803 rows in plot_data_qc.tsv. The exported PDF alone does not resolve this discrepancy.
  • The interpretation paragraph's claim that genotype plus G×E explains 95% conflicts with its variance table (60.7% + 26.4% = 87.1%). This page uses the component table and does not repeat the 95% claim.
  • This case study was prepared from the supplied session PDF and its embedded figures. The underlying analysis artifacts were not supplied for an independent rerun or numerical audit.
06 / Reproducibility and outputs

Analysis artifacts documented in the session

The PDF lists the following outputs. They document the session's intended audit trail; the website provides the report and selected embedded figures, not separate downloads of the underlying tables or model objects.

qc_exclusion_ledger.jsonSample and marker exclusions, with sample_qc.tsv and the cleaned HapMap
met_model.rdsFitted phenotype model, alongside fl_variance_components.tsv and fl_blup_full.tsv
flowering_time_adjusted.tsvLine-level phenotype input for GWAS
gwas_results_canonical.tsvFull 69,833-marker association table, with gwas_validation.json and significant-marker output
chr3_r2_matrix.npyLocal LD matrix, with region markers and ld_region_summary.json
chr3_locus_candidate_genes.tsvRegional MSU v6.0 candidates, with annotated significant markers and reference checksums in msu_v60_reference_manifest.json
Original Pipette session report30-page PDF · 2.8 MB · generated September 26, 2026. The HTML article is the primary case study; the PDF is the preserved session record.

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